Occam's Razor
Occam's Razor: The principle states that among competing hypotheses that predict equally well, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove to provide better predictions, but—in the absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.
This is my new guiding principle on the subject of equine reproduction. I have a mare, Lilly Frost (below), that should have a foal by now (she is at 352 days) and two donkeys that should not be pregnant but look ready to burst any day.
Lilly is the real conundrum because we have so many "knowns"--she was last covered on 5/28/14, she was vet checked in foal, she started bagging up 6 weeks ago and she has gone through all the normal milk changes in orderly progression. But LOOK at her, that just doesn't look like a pregnant mare--fat yes, pregnant and due any day, not so much.
But in order to solve the riddle of why she is bagged up with milk AND has failed to come into heat, we have to have two completely separate conditions occurring simultaneously--she must have a long-term equine false pregnancy (rare, they usually last 3-4 months) to be keeping her out of estrous AND she must be having a milk letdown reaction to the estrogens in the grasses and clovers in the pasture. This just seems unlikely...which leads back to Occam's Razor--the hypothesis with the least assumptions goes back to her simply being pregnant but with not a lot of belly showing.
If nothing happens by next week, I will have our vet out and either confirm she is still in foal and simply late or have her flushed in case something is going on in there that needs attention.
As for the donkeys, both the concept of the donkeys being pregnant and NOT being pregnant are equally implausible given the evidence. They are indeed Schrodinger's Donkeys.
And so we wait, and watch and wonder at them all.
This is my new guiding principle on the subject of equine reproduction. I have a mare, Lilly Frost (below), that should have a foal by now (she is at 352 days) and two donkeys that should not be pregnant but look ready to burst any day.
Lilly is the real conundrum because we have so many "knowns"--she was last covered on 5/28/14, she was vet checked in foal, she started bagging up 6 weeks ago and she has gone through all the normal milk changes in orderly progression. But LOOK at her, that just doesn't look like a pregnant mare--fat yes, pregnant and due any day, not so much.
But in order to solve the riddle of why she is bagged up with milk AND has failed to come into heat, we have to have two completely separate conditions occurring simultaneously--she must have a long-term equine false pregnancy (rare, they usually last 3-4 months) to be keeping her out of estrous AND she must be having a milk letdown reaction to the estrogens in the grasses and clovers in the pasture. This just seems unlikely...which leads back to Occam's Razor--the hypothesis with the least assumptions goes back to her simply being pregnant but with not a lot of belly showing.
If nothing happens by next week, I will have our vet out and either confirm she is still in foal and simply late or have her flushed in case something is going on in there that needs attention.
As for the donkeys, both the concept of the donkeys being pregnant and NOT being pregnant are equally implausible given the evidence. They are indeed Schrodinger's Donkeys.
And so we wait, and watch and wonder at them all.
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